on the nature of transition
and why it's so hard to spot
I noticed this telephone box for the first time yesterday, when I watched a man about my age put money into the receiver and manually punch in a number. What a strange, unfamiliar sight! All sorts of logistical questions came to mind: had he memorised the number? Who was he calling? It primarily made me wonder about the kind of person who still doesn’t have a mobile in 2023. Is it a lifestyle choice, perhaps a phobia? Or was he living in digital poverty, meaning that the upfront cost of a phone and contract is simply too much?
I digress, I’m writing about this telephone box today because it’s an example of societal and technological transition, a reminder that there was a time before the mobile phone was ubiquitous, just as there was once an era whereby contacting a friend required you to write a letter, buy a stamp and walk to your nearest post-box (apparently this is still possible).
The Oxford English Dictionary defines a transition as ‘the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another.’ This definition risks sounding as if transitions are clear cut phenomena, but throughout history, transitions have happened incredibly quickly, slowly, or incredibly slowly for a while and then very quickly. And sometimes, like Facebook’s failed Metaverse, they just – don’t happen … thank God.
Let’s take the iPhone, Apple introduced their first model of this smartphone in 2007, when I was fourteen. I was on a school trip to London the first time I saw one. A P.E teacher was showing off his brand new touchscreen phone that also played music. At the time I assumed they would remain prohibitively expensive so I would be stuck with my Sony Ericsson T9101 forever. Gradually, though, Apple were able to refine their product and reduce the costs so that a mere four years later I was able to get an iPhone on contract, along with about 1000 million other people.
In technological terms this is known as the ‘S-curve’; the model of exponential growth most tech-start-ups hope their product will emulate, but few achieve. Between the years 2010 and 2015, the smartphone industry evolved at a faster rate than another other consumer product in history. Obviously for Apple, this technological transition was a financial goldmine. But the successful penetration of the smartphone into the market also transformed our society on a cultural and political level too. Now that it was so easy to use the internet on your mobile, a wealth of new social media applications started to appear, transforming how societies would consume media and the way humans would connect to each other. Instead of going out to find a boyfriend, you could search for them on Bumble (or Tinder, if that’s your bag.)
But if I asked you how it felt to be living through one of the most transformative technological transitions in history, what would you say? Did it feel dramatic? Exciting? Or did it, as it so often does, not really feel like a notable transition at all? It happened gradually over a number of years, and by the time you got your iPhone the initial buzz and excitement had probably worn off. These days, smartphones are such an ingrained part of our lives that getting an upgrade borders on the mundane, despite representing one of the most tangible examples of cultural change ever documented.
The S-Curve is important if we want to understand the nature of the climate transition. In order to slow down the pace at which the climate is warming (ideally to below 1.5 degrees, although this is starting to look untenable) we need to rapidly reduce our carbon emissions by transitioning to net-zero. There are a myriad number of ways to do this. Perhaps the most important is by swiftly reducing the amount of carbon we are emitting right now, today by: changing our diets, re-evaluating our transportation options and reducing other land-based emissions as quickly as possible2.
Obviously we can’t cycle everywhere, so we need to find less carbon intensive ways of getting from a-to-b. Oh, and our houses need to stay warm, so electric alternatives like EVs and air-source heat pumps which can be powered by renewable energy sources like solar or wind sound like a good idea.
The good news for the climate transition is that many of these adaptive technologies already exist, and they are well on their way to achieving their own S-curve tipping points. Two weeks ago, CleanTechnica reported that electric vehicles are forecast to surpass two thirds of global car sales by 2030, putting at risk nearly half of worldwide oil demand (amen to that!). Combustion car sales peaked in 2017, making Sunak’s pledge to delay Britain’s internal combustion engine phase-out even more idiotic than it first seems.
Obviously this doesn’t mean we can rest on our laurels. Some environmentalists would probably admonish me for demonstrating how global markets are making a significant contribution to the reduction of global carbon emissions. They believe that leaving everything to market forces gives governments (like ours) an easy cop-out. I’m not suggesting we should leave it entirely to the market, but if the past week has shown us anything, it’s that we would be wrong to think our government has any interest in our planet’s future.
And anyway, markets are often simply responding to societal forces, trying to triangulate and predict what consumer behaviour will look like for the next quarter. This is why the campaigning work of previous generations, particularly in areas like food, matters. The change hasn’t been instant, and it obviously is nowhere near quick enough, but inch by painful inch the climate movement has made inroads, fundamentally changing our relationship to our diet and altering the future of our planet for the better. Perhaps something to muse on the next time you’re enjoying a Linda McCartney sausage bap or feel surprised by the number of vegan options McDonalds has on offer.
What I’m really trying to highlight is the way in which we are already deep in the midst of a climate transition. It’s not this mythical, far-off utopia which only our grandchildren will live to see, it’s happening all around us, right now, all at once. And it looks a bit like this:
These are three newly-built houses that are also a feature of my daily commute. And those are three spanking-new EV chargers which were installed at the time of them being constructed. It’s the climate transition, baby!
The writer and climate activist Rebecca Solnit uses mushrooms as a metaphor for the nature of social change, and it’s an image which gives me great hope, not just for the future, but for the here and now.
She suggests that uprisings and dramatic societal changes which often appear spontaneous are actually the result of deeply-rooted microbial-esq forces and almost imperceptible actions which have been at work within our culture for a great deal of time.
Ideas at first considered outrageous or ridiculous or extreme gradually become what people think they’ve always believed. How the transformation happened is rarely remembered, in part because it’s compromising: it recalls the mainstream when the mainstream was, say, rabidly homophobic or racist in a way it no longer is; and it recalls that power comes from the shadows and the margins, that our hope is in the dark around the edges, not the limelight of centre stage. Our hope and often our power.
Rebecca Solnit, The Guardian (2016)
In a week where it feels difficult to see the bigger picture, I hope that today’s newsletter has given you reason to step back and notice the sometimes imperceptible but always unstoppable power of the climate movement.
Look around your own neighbourhood for signs of the transition and tell us about them in the comments. You’ll be amazed what you notice when you’re looking.
A Remedy for the Disillusioned Human:
‘After the final no there comes a yes, And on that yes the future world depends.’ Take courage from this Ted talk by Al Gore in which he articulates some of the good news about our fight for the climate, citing these words by Wallace Stevens as an ecological rallying call.
Support Green New Deal Rising in their fundraising efforts.
Get outside and put your hands in the soil. Clench it between your hands and let it fall to the ground. Repeat as many times as necessary.
Enjoy this photo of nasturtium seeds I found at the end of my nursery commute. (H/T
for identification.)
It was actually a great phone! ILY
Responsibility for much of this lies at the feet of governments and corporations